The audacity of “Futures” player props
Bodog has their odds out for Heisman trophy winner (by the way Gouda, Knowshon isn’t an 8-1 favorite, Tebow is the 7-2 favorite, Knowshon just has 8-1 odds).
Anyone who bets on these is a certifiable idiot. Allow me to explain. The book makes money by paying out less than it takes in; this is pretty obvious so I’ll assume you follow. Whether you want to call it the vig, the overlay, or some other crazy degenerate term, it basically describes the built in odds that make the book rich and you poor.
A very easy example is an over/under line where both options are -110. What this means is that you have to risk $110 to win $100 (or some multiple in that same ratio). If both sides of the line get bet equally the book makes 9% just by letting people do what they do. Easy money.
Now, let’s say both options were -120, now the book makes about 17% profit. If it’s -120 and -110 the book stands to make about 13% on average. If it’s -175, +275, +225 (W/L/T for a soccer game, for instance) it’s about 11%. Basically all you do is find the breakeven percentage for each potential wager and add them up. However much over 100% is the vig.
Guess what it is for the Heisman props. Go ahead, guess. Nope, higher.
Higher.
Higher.
The final percentage for the Heisman props is….212.21%
I’m all for gambling, but that’s just robbery.
Category: Random Comments Off