f2f2s |

Almost certainly not, no.  But, let’s do some math and have fun.

The minimum number of plate appearances (at bats, walks, hit-by-pitches, bunts, sac flies, and defensive interference) to qualify for the batting title is 3.1 per game, or 502.

Let’s start by assuming that Chipper gets exactly 502 PAs.  He’s walking/getting hit/sacrifice flying (Chipper don’t bunt) at about a 16% clip.  His career average is a hair above 14.3%, but he’s only had a yearly average below that once in the last decade, and that was his injury plagued 2006 campaign.  But whatever, no shenanigans here, we’ll call it 14.3%.  That’ll knock it down to 502*0.857 for a total of 430 at bats.

With 430 at bats, Chipper would need exactly 430*.400 = 172 hits.  At this point, he already has 79 hits 188 at bats, so really he just needs 93 hits in his next 242 at bats, a cool .384 average.  Now comes the fun part.  What are his chances of hitting that?

Well, that all depends on what you think his true average is.  Using the cumulative distribution function for a binomial distribution (yes, I knew how to do this without looking anything up, I’m a nerd) we can plug in the expected probability of a discrete event (getting a hit) over a number of trials (total remaining at bats) and find the percentage of time the number is below a certain amount (number of hits needed).

Basically, plug this code into Excel and watch the answer pop up “=1-BINOMDIST(**hits**,**at bats**,**true average**,TRUE)”  So, if we assume his true average is 400, since we need him to get 93 hits in 242 at bats the code is “=1-BINOMDIST(93,242,.400,TRUE)” and the result is: 66.62% of the time he hits .400.

But, of course, his true average isn’t .400.  So what is it?  Well, I guess that’s where this gets a little more fun.  Is true average equal to his career average of .310?  He’s been improving lately, so is it the .324 he hit two years ago or the .337 he hit last year?  Maybe we can continue that improvement and assume .350?  Maybe it’s .364 since, as ESPN points out, “over the past year, he has had only one month when he’s hit lower than .364.”  As crazy as it sounds, it could even be .376, which is his total average over the past 12 months.

Not only will the true batting average change the result, but so too will the total number of plate appearances.  It’s a lot easier to hit 93 times in 242 at bats than it is to hit 206 times in 514 at bats.  If we assume 600 total plate appearances, that last set of numbers is what he would need to accomplish.

So, all that being said, here’s the chart I mapped out with Excel to look at Chipper’s chances.  His “true” batting average is on the left, and his total plate appearances are on top.

I’m still playing around with the CHDK I talked about a couple weeks ago, but it’s not going so well.  Someone else is apparently doing much better with the same equipment.  Below are a few examples, but be sure to check out all of his pictures here.

Remember, this is all done with a $170 camera (Amazon) and a free software add on.  Pretty amazing.

And a completely unrelated picture:

Newspaper article

Apparently they approve.

However, still no mention of shrimp corn chowder.  Come on people, don’t sleep on this stuff.

I’m not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing.  It’s always nice when people get to eat good food, but the lines were already 20+ people out the door without the coverage.

But this one was pretty sweet.  I saw it driving down to work the other day and thankfully had my camera to document it.  I know Gouda will get a big kick out of it.

It might be hard to really appreciate it at first, so click on the picture if you’re not sure you see it.

Tonight was an example of how to have a good time without spending any money.

Dekalb and I went up with Pete to his parents’ place in Gwinnett to eat some homemade pizza and hang out with his family.  On the way, Pete got a call to go by the grocery and pick up some more mozzarella for the pizzas.  Dekalb, being an adult, also decided to buy some water balloons for $4.

After dinner we came back to Atlanta and had a couple friends over.  One thing led to another, and suddenly we decide to do one of those contests where you see how far apart you can get throwing a water balloon back and forth.  Bailey and I tied with Pete and Elsberry when our balloons broke on the same throw.

Everyone else headed inside to make some more balloons for round 2, but a handful of us stayed by the pool and came up with a plan to just throw water balloons at them.  We got inside about 2 minutes before they were going to do the same thing to us.  Clearly the battle lines have been drawn at this point.

Somehow we convince them we’re on our way down to the pool and are able to get them out and lock the apartment doors.  Now the six of them (Andy, Dekalb, Nikki, Meagley, Amanda, Hogan) are outside with about 8-12 balloons while the six of us (Me, Pete, Dot, Steve, Elsberry, Rena) are in mine and Pete’s apartment with about 170 balloons.  Everyone knows it’s on.

We spend the next 15 minutes filling up about 50 balloons while they make the terrible mistake of using that time to split up and come up with a double-crossing plan rather than just take strong positions and keep us from being able to get out the two exits.  They do okay at first when they decide to pour water through the deck above us to try and get Pete as he opens the porch door.  But then everything goes to hell for them.

They send three of the girls to our apartment in an attemept to steal balloons while playig dumb, but they can only get away with one each.  Then, the best part of the fight happens.  Nikki is trying to get back in the apartment upstairs, but they don’t know who’s at the door.  So as soon as Dekalb opens the door, Andy throws and entire pot of water right on his teammate Nikki.  I wish someone had a picture or video of it, because I about fell down the steps after watching it happen.

Anyway, the battle goes on for about 30 minutes, no innocent bystanders are hurt and everybody ends up wet and tired.  Elsberry stayed completely dry throughout the process by climbing out of a ground floor window to get into his water-balloon-throwing area, so I guess he won.  Dekalb was trying to throw a big pot of water on Steve, but it was too full and the momentum ended up carrying the pot up on it’s path and he poured the water all over himself, so he definitely lost.

My personal casualty of (simulated) war:

Most fun $4 can buy.

I was reading some more essays from Paul Graham’s website today and came across a great one called “What You’ll Wish You’d Known”

It was supposed to be a talk he gave to some high schoolers, but that never happened.  Thankfully he published it on his site because it perfectly encapsulates an argument I was trying to make recently about how capable we really are as individuals to do something spectacular.

A lot of people think that there are only a few people who can be really good at golf, or great painters, or doctors.  And they think that it is all based on some inherent greatness born in to them or natural ability no one else can ever attain.  I think that’s ridiculous.  There are only a few people who can be great, but that is almost entirely due to their work ethic and commitment rather than some innate skill.

Anyway, here’s a very long snippet (maybe a full snip?) from the essay that pretty much mirrors my thoughts:

People who’ve done great things tend to seem as if they were a race apart. And most biographies only exaggerate this illusion, partly due to the worshipful attitude biographers inevitably sink into, and partly because, knowing how the story ends, they can’t help streamlining the plot till it seems like the subject’s life was a matter of destiny, the mere unfolding of some innate genius. In fact I suspect if you had the sixteen year old Shakespeare or Einstein in school with you, they’d seem impressive, but not totally unlike your other friends.

Which is an uncomfortable thought. If they were just like us, then they had to work very hard to do what they did. And that’s one reason we like to believe in genius. It gives us an excuse for being lazy. If these guys were able to do what they did only because of some magic Shakespeareness or Einsteinness, then it’s not our fault if we can’t do something as good.

I’m not saying there’s no such thing as genius. But if you’re trying to choose between two theories and one gives you an excuse for being lazy, the other one is probably right.

I like this Paul Graham guy.  The last line is especially poignant.

Beat the Mets! Beat the Mets! Step right up and SWEEP the Mets!

It seems everyone else went to a game in this series except me.  Oh well, at least I have an excuse to post more sad Mets fans pictures.

My favorite piece of trivia about the championship teams: 12 of the last 14 champions have employed either Robert Horry or Steve Kerr, but none have had both on the roster.

1994 – Robert Horry (Houston Rockets)
1995 – Robert Horry (Houston Rockets)
1996 – Steve Kerr (Chicago Bulls)
1997 – Steve Kerr (Chicago Bulls)
1998 – Steve Kerr (Chicago Bulls)
1999 – Steve Kerr (San Antonio Spurs)
2000 – Robert Horry (Los Angeles Lakers)
2001 – Robert Horry (Los Angeles Lakers)
2002 – Robert Horry (Los Angeles Lakers)
2003 – Steve Kerr (San Antonio Spurs)
2005 – Robert Horry (San Antonio Spurs)
2007 – Robert Horry (San Antonio Spurs)

Smart role players on disciplined teams who can play in any system.  A role Josh Childress would fit perfectly into.

Listening to The Herd on the drive to lunch today (790 was on commercial), lame blog-bombing host Colin Cowherd was talking about smart athletes.  Somehow he managed to go from talking about Tiki Barber and Jason Taylor to Arnold Schwarzenegger.  He was commenting on Arnold’s success in bodybuilding, action movies, real estate and politics when he dropped this gem:

Arnold is extraordinary both upstairs and downstairs.

An interesting discussion brought up by Gouda yesterday.  You can find his thoughts on the subject here, but allow me to paraphrase:

Winner - Die Hard
Contenders - Breakfast Club, Rocky, A Christmas Story, Airheads, The Chase
Dark Horses – Tremors, Rambo, The Sandlot, Predator, Speed, Bloodsport, Trading Places, Wayne’s World
Future Contenders – Joe Dirt, The Replacements, Tommy Boy

I’m cool with Die Hard winning this competition, but here are some flaws I see in the rest of it.

1. Trading Places is better than a Dark Horse.  That movie is shown > 30x per year and came out in 1983.
2. Tremors is an awful movie, but I can somehow see it being up there.  Especially if you include all the sequels.
3. National Treasure needs to be at least a future contender, if not a top contender already.  USA and TNT show that movie all the damn time.  And they’ll show it back to back to back too, which just makes it more popular.
4. I would switch out The Sandlot with That Thing You Do.
5. If we’re allowing The Chase, then we have to add Surviving the Game.

Anything else I’m missing?